THG had this conversation with Suike earlier:
We did not tell THG who BK's Montague bodyguard is.
It's my belief that BK was given a fake clue.
Midnyt told CAB, myself and THG about the results of her check. Midnyt knows that we believed about her identity from THG, so he probably thinks we will believe again.
Let's look at the clue:
"Joachim discovered only the families voted against Theobald"
There are no ***'s to indicate which clue number this is. This clue is very specific and reveals a great deal of information. Our previous 'how many players in family m voted for xyz' reveals have always been very vague. This one is too good to be true. Then there is Kaiba's message which suggests he will give us the names of the players in the Skulkraken list that are mafia in exchange for his life. Obviously he will lie and give us fake names. However, if there were no mafia in the Skulkraken list, and they thought we were going to kill those targets, there's no reason for him to contact us.
The counterpoint to this is that it's possible Kaiba expects us to ignore him and kill everyone in the list. We have a detective check going up so provided Eyolo survives then we will know.
It's my expectation that the Capulets are now working with the Citizens. I think it's possible the Watch are working with the mafia. I expect that the Capulet medic is watching their own Detective. Should Kaiba not die tonight, it is because CAB did not hit him. CAB is also lying about his kill power.
What I think Kanako has done is a three way swap with the Capulet bodyguard, the head of the mafia, and the watchman who has kill power. They all know each other and they went along with this plan. If CAB wants to fake it, he will just claim that Kaiba is protected by a medic and he could not make the hit. However there is no way Capulet will leave their detective unprotected. They expect the mafia to betray them at any moment.
My list of players who were suspected Mafia, before today's lynch vote:
BScar, Major_Pain, Kaiba, Vampirate.
My list of players who were suspicious by means of no intel:
9. Nebecanezer - Status unknown, no intel. Never voted.
22. 1337guard - Status unknown. Never voted.
36. DJROC - Status unknown, no intel. Has not voted. DNA says if he dies, BK should contact him.
37. Uberlegen - Status unknown, no intel. Has not voted.
38. Qix - Status unknown, no intel. Has not voted.
40. Kegluneq - Status unknown, no intel. Has not voted. Possibly linked with BScar.
Aarin said in the chat today that two players were inactive and die during this night phase if they take no action. Those players are Kegluneq and Nebecanezer.
Of these:
Bscar
major_pain
NeoNostalgia
Sagi
Bscar and Major_Pain are already on my list of mafia. We have placed hits on both of them. I have one very likely legitimate sleeper hitting Bscar, and one reluctant and possibly faking it sleeper (Jeffu) hitting major_pain. I've asked Skulkraken to waste Sagi if he is active and has kill power.
Sagi has taken no action in this game and only voted for Skulkraken once Kaiba had votes against his name. Major_Pain may not be mafia, but Sagi probably is.
29. NeoNostalgia - Status unknown. Voted for Zaxser. Voted for Kanako and BoD, abstained. Likely Capulet.
Again, NeoNostalgia only joined in once Kaiba was under attack. I think he could be mafia, but Sagi more likely to be Citizen than Capulet, and we really are aiming for Citizens at the moment. Capulets seem to keep jumping in the way of all our kills. It's really frustrating.
I believe the night actions will be as follows:
Sarck will kill the infiltrator who is investigating him tonight.
Capulet paramedic will protect Midnyt.
Kaiba +1 more mafia member will hit Skulkraken to overcome the anticipated paramedic protection.
3 Mafia kills remaining = two on Eyolo to overcome the paramedic if we put him here.
1 Mafia hit on Dukat or a sabotage on Santa, since I believe Capulet will offer him up as bait.
Capulets probably have two sleepers with active kill power and will hit two out of Madogu/Gasp! It's Jake/SpadaDellaVilla.
The previous evening, Rosaline got it on with Squiddy. It's likely Rosaline knows he is a fake lord. We think that because we are making it obvious we want him hit the enemy won't hit him, and instead will seek the next most likely target. I don't know who that is. If we're super lucky, they think that Suike is our lord since she already soaked up a hit and will leave her alone until they find me.
Rosaline hasn't got in contact with you. I don't believe she would continue to work alone, and has probably infiltrated the Capulet or Mafia network and is providing them information in exchange for immunity.
I will need to see the outcome of tonight's actions. There is no reason for Midnyt to lie about how many mafia there are voting for Skulkraken unless Capulets are protecting them. Now that a known mafia has been made available, I expect that the Capulets will have given them their list of known Montague's in exchange for immunity. Their list is regretfully reasonably accurate.
They gave you a fake clue which means they thought you would give it to us. If they really are working together, that means they are against us and probably count you as one of 'us'. On the surface, tomorrows vote should be very clear cut - if Kaiba is still alive, we lynch him and Capulet 'pretends' to be working with us to kill him. What happens underneath the surface will be very interesting, and I expect the town criers - if they live - will have a very busy night ahead of them.
The events of day 4 - Black Kitty and I worked together to put out a trap for the mafia. We had previously learned that Major_Pain was 100% not Montague. The bait was, we wanted to put a very likely Citizen target up and challenge Major_Pain to change his vote. We knew Skulkraken was ours, and so did Capulet. This meant he probably would die over night despite our best efforts. I decided that his death should not be in vain and 'revealed' who he was, that we knew because of the enemy detective (who I exposed), and challenged the town that players who voted for Skulkraken were obviously mafia.
We then used THG's intel on Kaiba who was on their likely Citizen list who was faking being a medic. Odds are he was either the Capulet medic or a Citizen, both very tasty targets, so we changed to him. Unsurprisingly, once we had a Citizen in our sights, there was very little support for him (which happened for Major Pain too, oddly enough). Unfortunately Kaiba was the escape artist so he lived, and that puts us in our current predicament.
That was the trap. If Major_Pain was serious about killing citizens, he couldn't vote for a player who was publically revealed. So, either he is a Citizen himself, or he is part of the Capulet group that is working with the Mafia.
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