Wednesday, June 18, 2008

The plan

TL:DR version
+Put the paramedic on Suike or our detective.
+We are not saving Squid.
+Ask the detective to investigate how many Montagues voted for Qix (to determine Bscar's loyalties) or how many unaffiliated voted for TheThirdRider (to verify Sarck is the paranoid and Dukat is a town crier).
+I am not using my family check. If you have a target you must identify, tell me and I will use it.
+Suike wants to make a kill. Hit anyone you please. I would prefer CAB over Umino.

--Full message

Alright guys. This is how we're gonna win this thing.

First of all - I will not burn up my last family check on Squidworth. I will leave it Wednesday noon-ish, so there is plenty of time to disagree with me if you wish. If there is anybody else who we absolutely must verify, let me know.

The main problem with saving Squid tonight is that there is no guarantee we can protect him long enough to kill all the people who know he is dangerous. I am certain Umino and Link have secondary groups like we do, and they will know that Squick is a threat. We only know of CAB and Umino who have kill power. CAB is apparently a serial killer; Umino is Juliet. Suike wants to use her kill power on one of them, I am fine with either. I would prefer Umino because there is a slight chance that BK will snap and autolynch CAB however.

Tomorrow we lynch Link. The following day we would lynch Umino/Tracerbullet or if they are already dead, CAB. From there the three of us sit down and look at where other people have voting/were voting. Anybody who voted for Zaxser on day 1 is suspect.

Check out the list:
Kaiba - no intel
TracerBullet - Probably Romeo under control of capulet
The Stupid One - no idea, but outed as a 'Watchman' by Link
Link - lol, Capulet lord
Bringerofdoom - Target eliminated. Great job.
Umino - Juliet Capulet; enemy.
Squidworth - suspicious guy allied with BBC.
NeoNostalgia - No intel.
DNA.Styx - Unaffiliated.
Chaoticatombomb - Affiliated with Capulet, must die.
TheHumbleGrasshopper - Unknown, outed as 'Watchman' by Link.
Suike - Our super secret super stealth vigilante of doom.
Midnyt - No intel.

I crossed this list with the people who wanted Kanako dead:
Link - lol
CitizenX - No intel but sure is annoying.
Sapphire - No intel.
Santakuroosu - No intel.
Umino - Juliet Capulet, must die.
Suike - Our super secret super stealth vigilante of doom.
ChaoticAtomBomb - Affiliated with Capulet, must die.
Kaiba - No intel but did vote for Zaxser in day 1.
TheWinkel - In contact with BBC, apparently Capulet
Midnyt - No intel but did vote for Zaxer in day 1.
BBC - Suspicious, working with Squid.
LOL Patrol - No intel.
Jun - No intel but was previously working with the TAP/Kanako block. Sudden betrayal unexpected.
Major_Pain - Picked out as not-a-montague with detective check.
NeoNostalgia - No intel, but voted for Zaxser.
TheHumbleGrasshopper - No intel, but voted for Zaxser.

Suspected:
Sarck is suspected to be the paranoid. I mailed him ten minutes before the vote and asked him to change to Link and BoD. I didn't reveal my house. After the vote he asked BK to get him in contact with Montague, as he is the only unaffiliated with a win condition - he has to kill the mafia. At this point I contacted him again and said I was from Montague but did not give away my role. I have not heard back from him so far.

Skulkraken:
I think this guy is a reasonable chance for being Montague. He is voting in the right way for it.

Dukat is supposed to be one of two town criers.

Tracerbullet is allegedly Romeo. The lovers are already working for Capulet, contacting Tracer to verify if he is Romeo is suicide. If Umino dies and is not Juliet or Tracer does NOT die, then we have an interesting situation ^_~

BBC: He contacted me out of the blue demanding to know why I was voting for Link and BoD. I told him that I knew they were both Capulet and I was Montague so I wanted them dead. He voted for BoD and Kanako. Previously he did not vote for Zaxser. I am undecided and therefore do not trust. Suggested Winkel is Capulet. If Winkel dies and he is Capulet, I BBC will be 'probably Montague' but still not clear.

Squid: He contacted me out of the blue after being in touch with BBC who said I was Montague. I am mighty suspicious of this. He did betray Link and BoD at the last minute and was already suspected of being a traitor by them. If he is Montague I would want to save him, however as I already said - he is probably in too much trouble already to rescue. We have already gathered our most valuable units - Detective, Paramedic, Vigilante, Lord. I think Suike is too valuable to risk and so I think we can't put the paramedic on Squid tonight. It has to go on Suike, or any other member that the West group feels is more important.
Additionally - if Squid dies and is anything but Capulet, he will be blamed for the leak. Suike will be trusted right up to the moment the last Capulet in the circle dies. Then she will be free to do her evil work elsewhere >.>
I hate to say it but I think we have to let Squid die.

In the last vote, we see that Bscar was the only person to vote for Qix. A detective 'how many votes on this person' check for house Montague will let us know if he is our ally. Alternatively we could use it on people who voted for TheThirdRider. Jun is unknown, Sarck is allegedly unaffiliated and the paranoid (he told BK this), Dukat is supposed to be the town crier. Ask how many are unaffiliated - it should come back as TWO or THREE. Ask how many are Montague and it should come back as ONE if Jun is Montague or NONE.

I think the result that had the highest net benefit from us is getting additional TRUSTED allies. I would check the votes against Qix. Alternatively if you feel working out if Sarck and Dukat really are who they say they are do so. Certainly me being able to tell BK that the person who she thinks is the town crier really is not the town crier will be interesting.

The lynch order, unless something interesting comes up before then, should be:
Link (Definite enemy)
Umino (Definite enemy)
CAB (Presumed enemy)
TheWinkel (Likely enemy)
TheHumbleGrasshopper (Is the watch real?)
NeoNostalgia (Voted for Zax and Kanako)
Midnyt (Voted for Zax and Kanako)
Major_Pain (Known to not be Montague)
TheStupidOne(Depending on the watch status)

This is almost 15 days away so I am certain we will need to re-evaluate as we go. We don't have to immediately lynch known Capulet members. As long as they are voting where we tell them to, they aren't a threat. If in doubt, we should favour killing Capulets over uncertains - we don't want to kill off the mafia too fast because we actually need them to kill the Capulets fast enough for us to win. We may incidentally kill Black Kitty's Capulet bodyguard. I expect her to be upset at this. She won't ally with us until she is certain it is safe. At the moment we are only one kill up. I expect the mafia to go all out tonight and we will probably take some hits.

Whenever the detective sees somebody voting on their own who is suspicious or unknown (preferably players we have no intel on at all) they should do a check on that person so we can get a TRUSTED ally or a KNOWN enemy. The alternative is, as I mentioned earlier, to get our suspicious players to vote for a random silent person and have the detective verify they are trustworthy. The added bonus of this is that some players, such as Link, freak out when they get votes on their name and are likely to pick up extra sheep voters because of it. It won't be enough to kill them, but it will help draw sheep away from our people.

CELLS:
Basically, the three of us are the only 100% trusted Montagues. I want to trust the Detective >.> Should I use my family check on him? If he is the Capulet detective we are in deep shit.

Here's how cells work. In our group of three, we know everybody who everybody is in contact with. So TTR has four in his group, and I 'have' Sarck on his own, Skulkraken on his own, and BBC and Squid together. None of the players who are outside the trusted zone may learn about any of the other players we have scouted out. A trusted player gets to know every single name because then they can correspond directly with the other trusted players. We become stronger and faster.

I tell Skulkraken, Sarck, BBC and Squid that "I am an expendable member of house Montague. I do not know any of the roles. I am simply the spokesman that the leadership has decided should contact these people. I have passed their names on to the leadership. Should I die, they will be marked for death." I don't intend to reveal any of the roles we have recovered, because if somebody says 'Oh ya I am the montague detective' then we know they are lying and can't be trusted. But we'll totally pretend to trust them, of course, right up until we vote for them.

We are inevitably going to take casualties. Capulet and Mafia will surely be looking at the vote lists just as I have done, and deciding which players they want to hit.

CLUES:
We have to recover every single clue that we can. We need to know the player's in-game name (for example, BoD was Lisa) and Sky is Lord Montigue. Tomorrow we will hopefully see from the town crier which name is TTR, and which is the enemy bodyguard. I don't intend to target BK's capulet bodyguard. Knowing who he is will allow us to avoid hitting him and risking BK thinking we are trying to kill her.

There is a second reason why we need to know clues and it's potentially far more important. I am doing a bit of roleplaying with Aarin at the moment. Lord Montague dispatched an urgent communication to the King of our nation with proof that House Capulet was responsible for the death of his son. I did it for lols but then I unexpectedly got a reply from the Crown strongly suggesting that I provide the in-game names (Ie Lord Capulet, Tybalt, Juliet, etc etc) and to stand by for further instructions.

In Romeo and Juliet, something like this actually happened and it's the whole point of the tragedy. Juliet pretends to commit suicide to escape her wedding to the Count, Romeo witnesses this and suicides in despair. After Romeo's death, Juliet kills herself. Juliet had dispatched a messenger to Romeo, but he did not arrive in time.

Tomorrow I will write a more condensed version of these notes that I would like you (TTR) to distribute to our allies so that they know what is going on. Essentially, at the start of each day phase, we are going to mail out to everyone 'Vote for player x'. Anybody who fails to vote or votes incorrectly gets added to the 'should be killed list' unless they are in the 100% trust zone. Capulet and Mafia infiltrators will be forced to vote along with us because they cannot work against us without being discovered.

Well that's basically my plan. Any disagreements or comments, let me know. If you have a better idea, please do it.

--Sky

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